Rotation Trust Level: Playoff (and Play-In) Edition (2024)

It’s been a long time since we’ve done one of these. So long that Joel Embiid has had time to tear his meniscus, have surgery and return to the court all in that time, in fact. With the regular season in the books and the Sixers’ postseason matchup set, now’s as good a time as any to look at their rotation to take stock in what they have.

This has been called the deepest and best-fitting team of Embiid’s career, but his two months on the shelf severely cut short his time to gel with the squad. He’s only had five games to play with new editions such as Buddy Hield, Kyle Lowry and Cam Payne.

While none of this matters if Embiid’s surgically repaired knee isn’t able to hold up for the next couple of months, the small sample size has looked good— really good, in fact. So let’s take a look at the pieces around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey and ask the question: how much can you trust this rotation in a playoff-like scenario?

The Starters

Kyle Lowry

Starting with the regulars, Lowry has been a godsend since joining this team after the buyout market. It didn’t take long for Nick Nurse to trust his former Raptor with a large role. Lowry’s started in 20 of the 23 games he’s appeared in for Philadelphia.

Whether it’s setting a screen, picking someone up at half court, or fighting for an offensive rebound, Lowry has picked up and ran with the “general nuisance for the other team” baton that was taken away from Patrick Beverley at the trade deadline.

His signs of aging definitely are there, most prevalent in his reluctance to take shots around the rim. He only takes two shots per game from the inside the arc. The good news he is reliable shooting from the outside. He’s making 40% of his three-pointers on nearly four attempts per game as a Sixer. That’s not just a hot couple of months, as he finished the season at 39%.

So the Sixers are putting a lot of stock in a 38-year-old point guard this playoff run, but his instant chemistry with Embiid plus general hustle and attitude has him penciled in to the starting lineup for the rest of the way.

Tobias Harris

This season was a masterclass in what not to do in a contract season. Harris’ struggles have been well-documented this season, particularly when Embiid was out of the lineup. For as frustrating as his season has been, bringing him off the bench for the postseason doesn’t feel like an option.

For better or worse, the Sixers are stuck with him this postseason, and demoting him to the bench could very well lose him altogether. While they're likely stuck with him in the starting lineup, they don’t need to pencil him in for 40 minutes a night in the playoffs.

For once, Philadelphia does have other options they can use at the wing in end-of-game scenarios, and perhaps a coach willing to make that change. It would be great if Harris got hot and started shooting six threes a game, but the Sixers need to be ready to have a quick hook if he doesn’t have it.

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Speaking of those other options, Oubre has given the Sixers all they could ask for given that he’s making the veteran’s minimum. His ability to get to the basket was a given, and something the team desperately needed when Embiid was hurt. How he’s expanded his game around that has been really encouraging.

He ended the season with an assist rate of 7.2%, easily a career high. It felt like the March 3 win against Dallas was a turning point for him in that regard, a game the Sixers pulled out after Tyrese Maxey suffered a concussion. Since that game, Oubre’s averaged 2.3 assists per game, up from his season average of 1.5.

He’s also been bought in on the defensive end for much of the season, taking primary wing and guard assignments. There may be others on this list who make more sense in the starting lineup from a fit perspective, but it’s hard to cut down on Oubre’s minutes with his play as of late.

The Regulars

Nico Batum

Speaking of guys who might make more sense in the starting lineup, Batum’s fit next to Embiid is hand-in-glove. On top of being an exceptional three-point shooter and defender for his age, Batum is one of the smartest passers Embiid has ever played with.

You probably want that type of player at more than 25 minutes per game, but with everyone playing pretty well since the team got healthy, Batum’s been the odd man out of the starting lineup.

When Embiid was out, it made sense to bring Batum off the bench as he didn’t have nearly as many post-entry passes to throw, but the Sixers would do well to pair those two together as much as possible. And if Tobias Harris is having an off night, Batum should be the first option off the bench to switch things up.

Buddy Hield

This is a guy many thought would be an exceptional fit with Joel Embiid, but that’s yet to be the case so far. Even with his struggles, Hield shot 38.5% from three as a Sixer, which says a lot about how prolific a shooter he is even during rough stretches.

Even since Embiid’s come back, Hield’s been a bit gun shy about hoisting up shots, and that hesitancy has stood out in a way that’s been otherwise clicking. Hield did end the regular season on a strong note, making 40% of his threes on seven attempts over the last five games.

For a guy like him, it will simply come down to if he’s hitting shots or not, and if he happens to get hot over these couple of months, that could go a long way for this offense.

Paul Reed

It was a very odd season for Basketball Paul, who struggled to scale up in heavy minutes during Embiid-less games, but really found his groove coming off the bench. His rebounding percentages were down, but they were still well above average on offense and defense, according to Cleaning the Glass.

He also expanded his range offensively this season and shot it very well for a big man. He finished with a 54% field goal percentage this year despite taking a lot more jumpers, and shot 36% on 0.7 threes a game.

The important part to remember with Embiid back is the Sixers will only need to rely on Reed for about eight minutes a game, and the second unit has done a good job of winning their minutes in games Embiid has played in this season.

De’Anthony Melton

What a bummer.

In fact, Melton should probably be bumped down a tier after the update Nick Nurse gave after the regular season finale. Despite saying he hoped to get Melton back up to 15 minutes pregame, Nurse announced that it is a long shot Melton is ready for Wednesday’s Play-In game against the Miami Heat.

Melton’s skillset would be so nice to add to this team for a playoff run, but he’s only played seven games in the calendar year 2024, and it doesn’t look like he’ll be getting healthier any time soon.

The Wildcards

Cam Payne

This will likely be right around the cut-off point for the playoff rotation, so it will be interesting to see how and if the bottom of the bench gets used from here on out. Payne offers a decent scoring punch in 10-15 minute bursts.

He averaged 9.2 points per game, shooting 38% from three as a Sixer. There could definitely be a spot in these playoffs where the Sixers need some shot creation and Payne is someone who could come off the bench and give it to them.

He is 6-foot-3 and skinny, making his defense a concern even if he does give effort on that end. That’s going to make it hard for them to stay on the floor in extended minutes, but he could be a nice change-of-pace guard the Sixers have the option of going to.

KJ Martin

Every time it looks like it's time to write Martin out of the rotation, he has a couple of solid games to put himself right back in the conversation. He wasn’t able to end the season on a high note as he missed the last three games with a toe contusion.

But he did find a groove when his role shifted to being a small-ball five. Nick Nurse praised his ability to guard guys bigger and taller than him during a press availability last week. His lack of shooting might keep him off the floor in the playoffs. He only shoots 53% from the free throw line, but he’s one of the most viable options the Sixers have had as a small-ball center in some time if that’s an option they want to go with at some point.

Ricky Council IV

Fresh off being converted to a standard NBA deal, Council is just eligible for postseason play. Council’s offensive development was the most pleasant surprise of the season. On top of making 37% of his threes this year, Council was fouled on 25.5% of his shot attempts. That’s the top percentile per Cleaning the Glass, albeit a fairly small sample size.

While he’s not quite ready to be in a playoff rotation just yet, the progress he’s made this year plus his freakish athleticism makes him a tempting option. It’s assuredly more comforting he’s been locked up for this run and for the next four seasons.

Mo Bamba

While Bamba certainly showed why he’s already bouncing from one veteran’s minimum to the next, he was another guy who had a solid last month of the season. From March 1 till the end of the year he averaged 5.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game, all up from his season averages.

While he starts over Reed when Embiid doesn’t play, he does slot back behind Reed when everyone’s healthy. That’s not to say Bamba won’t see the floor at all if Embiid is playing. Nurse pulled Reed when he was struggling against Orlando last week, and said he was going to start Bamba in the second half against Mo Wagner if Embiid was unable to return. Still, even with his solid play as of late, if Bamba is on the floor in the playoffs, it likely means something’s gone horribly wrong.

Jeff Dowtin Jr.

The odds of Dowtin having a significant moment these playoffs are extremely low, but with the latest De’Anthony Melton news, never say never. He may be someone who gets played off the floor less easier on defense — his 6-foot-3 frame just feels sturdier than Payne’s.

Even in just 12 games this year, Dowtin has just looked like a guy capable of sticking at the NBA level. The only confusion when he got a standard NBA contract was that it came before Council. Again, if the Sixers have to go this deep off the bench, something horrendous has happened, but it feels like there’s a lot less black holes on the end of the bench than in years past.